The federal government’s newest price outlook shows the vegetable aisle climbing faster than the rest of the grocery cart this year, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasting a 5.9 percent increase in retail fresh vegetable prices for 2026. Tomatoes are driving much of that increase already: retail prices for fresh tomatoes in July 2026 ran 12.8 percent higher than a year earlier, the agency’s latest data show. For a household that fills a produce drawer every week, the difference shows up fast, a few dollars more per trip that adds up over a year of shopping.
The forecast comes from the USDA’s Economic Research Service, which updates its Food Price Outlook each month using the latest Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The August update, built on July 2026 price data, placed fresh vegetables among the grocery categories rising faster than their typical long-run pace.
USDA’s Forecast: Vegetables Up 5.9 Percent for the Year
Retail prices for fresh vegetables are forecast to increase 5.9 percent over the course of 2026, according to the USDA Economic Research Service’s Food Price Outlook, with a 95-percent forecast interval running from 4.0 percent to 8.0 percent. The forecast is not a single locked-in number. ERS builds it from a statistical model that compares the average of prices across all months of 2026 with the average across all months of 2025, and the interval narrows as more of the year’s actual data becomes available.
That puts fresh vegetables among a shrinking group of grocery categories running hotter than normal. The Food Price Outlook found that seven of the 15 food-at-home categories it tracks, including beef and veal, fish and seafood, fresh fruits, fresh vegetables, processed fruits and vegetables, and sugar and sweets, are forecast to grow faster in 2026 than their 20-year historical average rate.
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Tomatoes Lead the Increase at the Checkout
Fresh tomato prices were 12.8 percent higher in July 2026 than in July 2025, the largest year-over-year increase among the three vegetables ERS breaks out individually in its report. The tomato jump is a large part of why the broader vegetable category is running above its long-run trend, even though vegetable prices actually fell 1.6 percent from June to July 2026 on a month-over-month basis. ERS attributes swings like this to the mix of crops that make up an average household’s produce basket; harvest timing, weather, and transportation costs can move individual items differently than the category moves as a whole.
Lettuce and Potatoes Add Less to the Bill
Fresh lettuce prices were 7.5 percent higher in July 2026 than a year earlier, and fresh potato prices were up 3.4 percent over the same period. Both increases are smaller than the jump in tomatoes, showing how unevenly price pressure is spreading across the produce section even within a single forecast category.
Fresh fruit, tracked separately from vegetables, offers a point of comparison. Fruit prices rose 4.9 percent over the same 12-month period and are forecast to increase a more modest 2.9 percent for all of 2026, with a forecast interval of 1.4 percent to 4.4 percent, roughly half the pace forecast for vegetables.
A Widening Gap Between the Farm and the Grocery Aisle
The price pressure at the retail counter contrasts sharply with what is happening further up the supply chain. ERS forecasts that farm-level vegetable prices, what growers are paid before vegetables reach a wholesaler or store, will rise 17.8 percent in 2026, with a wide forecast interval of 7.6 percent to 30.9 percent reflecting how unpredictable farm prices have been this year. Yet farm-level vegetable prices actually fell 29.4 percent from June to July 2026 and were 19.1 percent lower in July 2026 than in July 2025, even as retail vegetable prices moved higher over that same stretch.
Farm-level prices are typically far more volatile than what shows up at checkout, since retail prices absorb processing, transportation, and distribution costs that smooth out swings closer to the field. Earlier in the year, farm-level vegetable prices ran well above year-ago levels, up 70.2 percent in May 2026 and 59.2 percent in June 2026 compared with the same months in 2025, before the sharp midsummer drop.
Vegetables Are Outpacing the Broader Grocery Bill
The 5.9 percent vegetable forecast stands well above the outlook for groceries overall. ERS projects that food-at-home prices, everything bought at a grocery store or supermarket, will rise 2.5 percent in 2026, with an interval of 1.7 percent to 3.3 percent, close to the category’s 20-year historical average of 2.6 percent. Food prices overall, including restaurant meals, are forecast to rise 3.0 percent for the year.
For comparison, the all-items Consumer Price Index, a measure of economy-wide inflation covering far more than food, was 3.4 percent higher in July 2026 than a year earlier, while the food-at-home index specifically was up 2.7 percent over the same period. Vegetables are running well ahead of the average grocery item, one of the sharper price pressures in what has otherwise been a moderate year for food costs. ERS publishes the underlying food price data as an interactive chart series that updates alongside the monthly forecast.
ERS typically releases these forecasts on the 25th of each month, folding in the newest available CPI and PPI data as it becomes available. The next scheduled update, due September 25, 2026, will incorporate August price figures that the current forecast does not yet reflect.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by a human editor. Figures are linked to their primary sources; where a claim could not be verified from the public record, we say so.
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