Roughly 3.16 million people in individual Medicare Advantage plans are in plans that are being terminated for 2027. The exact count is 3,156,598 enrollees, or 10.6 percent of the individual market, according to Medicare Market Insights, a firm that tallies federal plan files. Open enrollment, the stretch for picking replacement coverage, runs October 15 through December 7.

The count comes from analyst Jared Strock, who matched the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) plan-year 2027 crosswalk and landscape files against September 2026 enrollment. It covers individual Medicare Advantage plans only, so employer group plans, cost plans, medical savings account plans and PACE are left out. CMS has not published this total itself.

For a member of one of these plans, the open question is which route fits: a replacement plan from the same insurer, a different Advantage plan, or Original Medicare with a separate drug plan. Medicare’s own Plan Finder lists every 2027 option by county, and each choice has to be made before the December 7 deadline.

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How does 2027 compare with earlier years?

The share of members losing a plan has climbed fast. Strock puts it at 10.6 percent for 2027, up from 10 percent for 2026 and 7 percent for 2025. The number of people affected rose from about 2 million for 2025 to about 2.87 million for 2026 and now to 3.16 million.

That growth outpaced the market itself. Individual Medicare Advantage enrollment grew 2.4 percent to about 29.9 million, while the number of people in terminated plans rose 10 percent in a year. From 2021 through 2024, the analysis says, the share ran between 0.4 percent and 1.5 percent, a range it attributes to ATI Advisory research.

Are the plans ending, or just leaving some counties?

Most are ending outright. Full plan terminations make up about 75 percent of the total, roughly 2.36 million members. The other 25 percent, about 800,000 members, are in plans that remain on the market but are pulling out of the member’s county, known as a service area reduction.

The type of plan matters. Local PPOs lost the most: 19 percent of local PPO enrollees, or 1,849,692 of 9,842,649, are affected, and that group accounts for 59 percent of all the disruption. HMO plans are at 7 percent, or about 1.29 million members, flat from last year. Special needs plans for people who also have Medicaid, called D-SNPs, saw 254,680 members affected, up from about 135,000.

Which insurers and states are hit hardest?

Four companies carry just over half the load. Humana, UnitedHealthcare, CVS and Aware Integrated together account for 53 percent of terminations. Humana alone has about 601,000 members affected, 9 percent of its individual book, with nearly 40 percent of those in Florida. Aware Integrated, the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Minnesota plan, is ending coverage for about 258,000 members, 90 percent of its individual business.

Minnesota is the hardest-hit state, with about 346,000 members, or 63 percent of its individual Medicare Advantage market. Florida follows at about 321,000 members, 11 percent of its market. Outside Minnesota, the highest rates are in Wyoming at 46 percent, South Dakota at 41 percent and North Dakota at 40 percent. Seven organizations are leaving individual Medicare Advantage entirely, up from five a year ago, mostly provider-sponsored health systems.

The effects reach every state. Members in all 50 states and more than 2,500 counties are affected, and the 15 largest parent companies account for 80 percent of the impacted enrollment. The Portland Press Herald, reporting on Maine, cited the same figure as nearly 3.2 million in an October 20 story.

What can members do before December 7?

Medicare.gov says the Open Enrollment Period runs October 15 through December 7. During it, a person can join, drop or switch to another Medicare Advantage plan with or without drug coverage, or move from a Medicare Advantage plan to Original Medicare. People in Original Medicare can also join, drop or switch drug plans.

Coverage chosen in that window generally starts January 1, and the new plan must receive the request by December 7. The lasting question for the roughly one in ten members affected is what the replacement actually costs for their own prescriptions and their own doctors, because a plan that carries the same name next year may not carry the same network or formulary.

Which plan replaces the one ending for 2027?

A member of a terminated plan who waits past December 7 may end up in coverage chosen by default rather than by a cost comparison, with a drug list and doctor network nobody checked. With 3,156,598 people in the same position this year, the replacement plans will be busy and the decision window is fixed.

The 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit is built for that choice. It includes a cost calculator spreadsheet that compares plans on cost, drugs and doctors, a prescription-by-plan comparison and a provider call script, along with the Open Enrollment calendar that keeps October 15 through December 7 in front of the reader.

Run the cost calculator for an ending plan in the 2027 Medicare Open Enrollment Decision Kit →

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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.