Fewer people filed for the first time for unemployment benefits last week, and the count landed under 200,000 again. The Labor Department reported Thursday, Oct. 8, that initial claims were 197,000 in the week ending Oct. 3, down 2,000 from the prior week’s revised 199,000, according to its weekly claims release. The figure is seasonally adjusted and still an advance estimate that the department revises a week later.

Four numbers from the release

The headline number is the new filings. The department’s other figures give the picture around it:

• Initial claims: 197,000 for the week ending Oct. 3, down 2,000 from a revised 199,000.
• Four-week average: 198,000, down 2,500 from a revised 200,500.
• Continuing claims: 1,716,000 for the week ending Sept. 26, up 17,000 from a revised 1,699,000.
• Insured unemployment rate: 1.1% for the week ending Sept. 26, unchanged from the week before.

Continuing claims run one week behind because they count people who have already filed and are still collecting. That is why the two series carry different dates.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000, so the number came in lower than expected, The Spokesman-Review reported. Claims have stayed under 200,000 since the second week of September, and the four-week average is at its lowest since early October 2022.

For anyone job hunting, the 197,000 answers one question and leaves another open. Layoffs are rare, which is what a low claims count measures. How easy it is to land a job depends on hiring, and the claims figure does not measure that. Employers can keep their staff and still post few openings.

The Labor Department revises each week’s claims number a week later and publishes a new one every Thursday, so the 197,000 will not stay as reported.

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Low layoffs, slow hiring

A low claims count says that few people are losing jobs. It says little about how easy it is to find one. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, described the market as "still a ‘low-hire, low-fire’ job market." Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, expects "gentle upward pressure on the unemployment rate" over the next few quarters.

The hiring side shows up in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September jobs report, released Oct. 2. Employers added just 29,000 jobs that month, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. It has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. About 1.9 million people had been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer, or 27.1% of all unemployed workers.

Job seekers sit between the two readings: few layoffs keep the weekly claims number low, but 29,000 new jobs in a month is not a market where openings multiply. The rise in continuing claims, now at 1,716,000, points the same way, and a search may take longer than the low claims count suggests.

Adjusted counts and raw counts

The 197,000 is a seasonally adjusted figure, which smooths out predictable swings such as holiday weeks and school calendars. The raw, unadjusted count for the same week was 170,333, up 11,994, or 7.6%, from the week before. Both are correct. The adjusted number is the one economists and headlines use, because it compares one week with another on equal terms.

In the state data, no state had an unadjusted increase above 1,000 in the week ending Sept. 26, and Hawaii was the only state with a decrease above 1,000, down 1,172. For the week ending Sept. 19, New Jersey had the highest insured unemployment rate, at 2.0%. The national rate for the week ending Sept. 26 was 1.1%.

What 1.7 million continuing claims means

The 1,716,000 continuing claims is the better gauge of how long unemployment lasts. It rose 17,000 in the latest week. A rising number alongside falling new claims is the pattern of a market where few are let go and the people who are out of work take their time finding something.

The insured unemployment rate of 1.1% counts only people receiving state benefits relative to covered employment. It is far below the 4.2% unemployment rate from the jobs report, because that broader rate counts people who are looking for work but are not collecting benefits, and people whose benefits ran out.

Reading the next Thursday release

The next weekly claims report is due Thursday, Oct. 15, on the same Labor Department page. The two numbers to watch are the first-time claims, which will show whether layoffs stay low, and the continuing claims, which show how long people stay out of work. A move of a few thousand either way is routine, and the revision to the prior week often matters as much as the new figure.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October jobs report on Nov. 6, and that is when the hiring side of the picture updates. Job seekers can use the two together: low claims mean employers are keeping staff, and the payroll count shows whether they are adding any.

For anyone who has lost a job, benefits are applied for through the state unemployment agency in the state where the work was done. The weekly national figure is the Labor Department’s, and the state agency decides on each claim. The release the numbers came from is the department’s own, and it is updated each Thursday morning.

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This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.