Henry Hub is the benchmark that sets the tone for natural gas prices across the country, and the Energy Information Administration expects it to slip next year. In its October 6 outlook, the agency forecasts the Henry Hub price will average $3.16 per million British thermal units in 2027. That is down 32 cents, or 9 percent, from an expected $3.48 average in 2026.
A wholesale price like this is not what a family pays. Utilities buy gas at the wholesale level and add the cost of pipes, storage and delivery before the charge shows up as therms on a monthly bill. For households that heat with gas or cook with it, the question is how much of a 32-cent drop in the wholesale price ever reaches the bill, and what to expect in the meantime.
Households wondering how a lower wholesale price turns into a gas bill can use The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit, which lists heating, cooling and home-repair help and an application log and renewal calendar.
See the heating-help options for gas-heated homes in the kit →
What the 2027 price rests on
The forecast has three supports. Production is projected to rise from 112.20 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 to 116.13 billion in 2027. Storage was 3,523 billion cubic feet at the end of September, and the agency expects it to reach 3,850 billion by the end of October, about 2 percent above the five-year average.
The third piece is demand. Domestic consumption is forecast at 92.37 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 and 93.83 billion in 2027, and liquefied natural gas exports are forecast at 17.6 billion cubic feet a day this year and 18.6 billion next year. Both demand figures rise year over year, and the forecast still shows the Henry Hub price easing.
From wholesale price to household bill
The same outlook gives the household version for this winter. Homes that use natural gas and propane as their main heating source, around half of U.S. households, are expected to spend less on average than last winter, according to the EIA’s winter heating forecast. The agency expects homes heated with electricity to spend slightly more.
The wholesale price is forecast to ease through 2027, so the lower figure is a forecast for the year ahead, not for this winter’s bill alone. A utility may also buy gas ahead of time, and state regulators review what companies pass on to customers. The outlook does not say how fast any one utility will change its rates.
Gas also sets part of the electric rate
Natural gas does not only heat homes. The EIA says gas supplied 40 percent of U.S. electricity generation in 2026 and expects that share to slip to 39 percent in 2027. A plant that burns gas pays the market price for it, so the fuel is one cost behind the power on the grid.
That link is one reason gas is watched by people who never see a gas bill. It is also a limit on what a Henry Hub drop can do: the agency’s forecast for home electricity still rises to 18.7 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2027, from 18.2 cents in 2026, so a lower gas price does not guarantee a lower electric bill.
The summer numbers behind the forecast
The EIA reported on September 25 that the Henry Hub price averaged $2.93 per million British thermal units from June through August, which was 6 percent lower than the summer before. The forecast of $3.48 for all of 2026 is higher than that summer figure, which implies higher prices in the rest of the year before the 2027 average of $3.16.
Watching gas prices ahead of the next heating bill
The free source is the agency’s outlook itself, which updates monthly. The next release is due November 10, 2026, and the Henry Hub numbers could change by then. A household that wants to follow the story can compare the figures with the price per therm printed on its own gas bill. The two are not measured the same way: Henry Hub is quoted per million British thermal units, while a bill is usually billed in therms or cubic feet, so the unit on the bill matters before any comparison.
Help with heating costs is available separately from the forecast. The federal LIHEAP program helps low-income households with energy bills through state, tribal and local offices. Households that expect a tight winter should keep their last gas bills, proof of income and account numbers together so an application can move quickly if prices behave differently than the forecast.
The Senior Property Tax & Home-Cost Relief Kit brings together heating, cooling and home-repair help with the circuit-breaker credit that includes renters, so a household can sort out bill relief and home-cost relief at once.
Get the kit to track gas bill help and renewals →
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the EIA and federal pages linked above.
