Home insurance premiums are on track to rise again nationwide in 2026, but not everywhere. New projections show five states are bucking that trend entirely, with average premiums expected to hold flat or actually fall slightly by the end of the year even as the national average climbs. It is a rare bright spot in a market that has pushed the typical homeowner’s bill up nearly $1,000 since 2021.
The Five States Bucking a Five-Year National Trend
According to Insurify’s 2026 home insurance price projections, the national average annual premium is set to rise about 4 percent this year, to roughly $3,057, marking a fifth consecutive year of increases. Against that backdrop, five states are projected to move the other direction by 0 to 2 percent: Hawaii and Massachusetts are each expected to dip about 2 percent, Maine about 1 percent, and Louisiana and Rhode Island are projected to land essentially flat.
In dollar terms, that means Hawaii’s typical premium is projected to fall from about $2,566 to $2,520, Massachusetts from about $2,170 to $2,135, and Maine from about $1,374 to $1,359, while Louisiana and Rhode Island are projected to move by less than $20 either way on premiums that already sit well above the national average.
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Why Extreme Weather Sets the Baseline Everywhere Else
The reason most of the country isn’t seeing the same relief comes down to claims. The Insurify report ties rising premiums directly to a run of costly disasters: severe convective storms alone caused more than $52 billion in insured losses in 2025, the third-highest total on record, while the Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025 became the single most expensive non-hurricane disaster in U.S. history. A separate Climate Central review of 2025’s billion-dollar weather disasters counted 23 such events nationwide costing a combined $115 billion, the third-highest annual count on record behind only 2023 and 2024.
States where insurers spent more on claims than they collected in premiums during 2024 mostly raised rates further in 2025, and Insurify’s data scientists expect that pattern to continue into 2026. California, Nebraska, New Mexico and Georgia sit at the other extreme, each facing projected increases of 10 percent or more this year as insurers work to recover wildfire and severe-storm losses.
Louisiana’s Bet on Storm-Resistant Roofs
Louisiana’s flat projection is notable because the state carries one of the highest average premiums in the country, at roughly $5,035 projected for the end of 2026, driven by its exposure to hurricanes. Rates there surged 39 percent in 2024 after a rough storm season, then held essentially flat in 2025 and are projected to do the same in 2026, which Insurify attributes in part to the state’s continued investment in disaster mitigation. Louisiana has been paying homeowners directly to storm-proof their roofs: the state’s FORTIFIED Roof Tax Credit, run by the Louisiana Department of Revenue, covers 100 percent of qualified costs up to $10,000 per primary residence for roofs certified to the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety’s wind-resistance standard, on top of a separate state grant program that pays for the same upgrades for homeowners who don’t use the tax credit.
What Five Years of Increases Have Already Cost Homeowners
Even the states seeing relief this year are recovering from a steep run-up. The average U.S. home insurance premium has climbed 46 percent since 2021, nearly three times the pace of inflation over the same period, according to Insurify’s data. Rebuilding costs are a big piece of that: the price of building materials alone rose 15 percent over the past year, after rising only 7 percent over the prior two years combined, which insurers factor directly into how much coverage a typical home needs.
Insurers are also changing how they structure policies to limit their own exposure to that trend, not just raising the price. In hurricane-prone states, many now apply a separate hurricane deductible equal to a percentage of a home’s total dwelling coverage rather than a flat dollar amount, which can mean a homeowner owes several thousand dollars out of pocket before hurricane coverage kicks in. In hail-prone states, some insurers have also moved away from paying a roof’s full replacement cost, instead paying its depreciated actual cash value, which lowers what a homeowner collects on an aging roof even when the premium itself hasn’t changed.
What This Means If You’re Shopping for Coverage Right Now
A statewide average moving in the right direction doesn’t guarantee any individual homeowner sees a lower bill, since rates still vary by insurer, location, home age and claims history within a state. Homeowners in any of the five states projected to hold flat or fall this year still have reason to compare quotes at renewal, since Insurify’s own data shows premiums for the same coverage can vary significantly between insurers even in states with a falling average. For homeowners anywhere else, the report’s broader message is more sobering: as long as insured losses from severe storms and wildfires keep setting records, most of the country should expect the fifth straight year of increases to be followed by a sixth.
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by a human editor. Figures are linked to their primary sources; where a claim could not be verified from the public record, we say so.
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