New Mexico’s Health Care Authority projects that about 101,760 Medicaid members could lose coverage for at least two months because of the more frequent eligibility checks that begin January 1, 2027. The estimate, released at an August 31, 2026 news conference, comes as the state prepares to move working-age adults covered through Medicaid expansion from annual renewals to renewals every six months.
The New Mexico projection
HCA Cabinet Secretary Kari Armijo and other agency officials presented the figures in a briefing on federal Medicaid changes. Starting January 1, the agency said, Medicaid members subject to the new work or activity rules will generally renew every six months instead of every 12 months, and about 101,760 members could lose coverage for at least two months as a result.
The authority released several other estimates at the same time: about 89,000 people projected to lose coverage because of the work or activity rules, and about 2,350 lawfully present immigrants projected to lose federally funded Medicaid eligibility beginning October 1. The agency’s presentation slides stress that these are projections, “NOT counts of people who have already lost Medicaid,” and that the groups overlap and should not be added together.
New Mexico’s Medicaid program covered 825,287 people as of July 2026, according to the slides. The work rules and the six-month schedule primarily affect about 230,000 adults ages 19 to 64 covered through the adult expansion group, which the state added in 2014 for adults with incomes up to 138% of the federal poverty level.
Two renewals a year means two packets to track. When a renewal form can arrive every six months instead of once a year, the renewal document checklist and renewal and reporting calendar in The SNAP & Medicaid Renewal Organizer keep each due date and requested document in one place.
Who moves to six-month renewals
New Mexico’s slides describe the change as members subject to the work or activity rule renewing every six months starting January 1, while Native Americans will continue to renew every 12 months. Older adults and people with disabilities who are covered through other Medicaid groups are outside the adult expansion population that the new schedule targets, and the agency lists them separately in its breakdown of who Medicaid covers.
The federal requirement comes from H.R. 1, the budget law signed in July 2025. In a State Medicaid Director letter issued in March 2026, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services told states they must redetermine eligibility once every six months for the adult expansion group beginning with renewals scheduled on or after January 1, 2027, and it excluded certain American Indians and Alaska Natives. CMS gave states two transition options for people already in a 12-month eligibility period: reschedule some renewals to come as close to six months as possible, or keep an already scheduled 2027 renewal and apply the six-month period at that point.
For adults in their 50s and early 60s who rely on expansion Medicaid until Medicare eligibility at 65, the change means an eligibility review roughly every six months rather than once a year. Each review is a point at which missing paperwork can interrupt coverage for doctor visits, prescriptions and hospital care.
Why paperwork drives the projected losses
CMS’s letter directs states to try an ex parte renewal first, checking reliable information already on file or available through permitted data sources. When that is not enough, the state must send a prepopulated renewal form and allow at least 30 days to return it with any requested information. Before ending coverage or taking another adverse action, states must also give at least 10 days’ advance notice and fair-hearing rights.
Washington state is betting on automation to limit the paperwork risk. Governor Bob Ferguson said on September 3, 2026 that “every additional form or documentation requirement creates another opportunity for someone to lose coverage, not because they are ineligible, but because the process is too difficult.” His office said the state is building an automated verification hub that pulls together data already available to confirm eligibility, “so people don’t have to submit new paperwork every six months,” and expects it to help 400,000 people keep Apple Health, Washington’s Medicaid program.
Washington’s numbers show the scale of the shift even with that tool. The governor’s office said more than 600,000 Washingtonians will face work requirements starting January 1 and will be required to reapply twice as frequently, and it projected that at least 200,000 will still lose Apple Health coverage by the end of 2027 as a direct result of H.R. 1.
What New Mexico is asking members to do
New Mexico began mailing notices the week of August 31 to about 230,000 Medicaid members. The federally required notice explains the 80-hour monthly work or activity requirement, the exemptions and the six-month renewals. Officials said receiving it does not mean a member will lose Medicaid automatically, and some members will qualify for exemptions. HCA is sending its notices in turquoise envelopes and said a member who receives one needs to take action.
The agency is urging members to keep their address and household information current at YES.NM.GOV, read every letter, text and email from HCA, and complete renewals on time. It scheduled its first virtual information session on the changes for September 23, said more community events will follow this fall, and takes calls at 1-800-283-4465.
HCA also said it will try to spare members with serious health needs from extra paperwork at renewal. For current members, the agency will check available records such as past Medicaid claims to see whether a person already qualifies for the medically frail exemption, and in 2027 a member can report a qualifying condition without submitting extra documents. People enrolled in both SNAP and Medicaid do not need 160 hours: the same 80 hours of qualifying activity count for both programs. Further out, the slides note that some adult Medicaid members may begin paying for certain health care services starting October 1, 2028.
A six-month clock leaves less slack between packets
New Mexico’s projection ties coverage losses to how often eligibility is checked rather than to a change in who qualifies. The practical gap is keeping track of a renewal date that now comes around twice a year, along with the documents each packet may request.
The SNAP & Medicaid Renewal Organizer includes a renewal and reporting calendar, a renewal document checklist and 51 state packs, including one for New Mexico.
Map out both renewal dates with The SNAP & Medicaid Renewal Organizer.
This article was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed against the linked official sources.
