Diesel is not expected to stay at $6.28 a gallon forever. The Energy Department’s October outlook has retail diesel averaging $4.49 a gallon in 2027, after an average of $5.19 for 2026. The text of the Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 6 by the department’s Energy Information Administration, rounds the 2027 figure to “about $4.50.”
Today’s diesel against the forecast
AAA’s national average for diesel was $6.2785 on Oct. 9. EIA’s own weekly count for Oct. 5 had on-highway diesel at $6.199, down 18.3 cents on the week and up $2.488 from a year earlier. Both are well above the $4.49 forecast for next year. The gap between AAA’s reading and the 2027 average is about $1.79 a gallon, or roughly 29 percent.
The 2026 average of $5.19 looks low next to those readings, which tells something about the year. The year’s average is a blend of all its months, not a reading for any one of them.
What sits under the forecast
EIA does not forecast diesel by itself. The outlook’s key assumption is that oil flows from the Middle East stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026, and then recover as convoys through the Strait of Hormuz and workarounds such as bypass routes and ship-to-ship transfers raise production and exports. The outlook puts Brent crude at $105 a barrel for the fourth quarter, $14 higher than a month ago.
If that path holds, diesel comes down in 2027 as crude eases. If it does not, the number moves with it. The outlook comes out monthly, and diesel’s forecast has to be read as the agency’s current best estimate, not a price anyone has been promised.
For anyone who relies on diesel or on goods delivered by diesel trucks, the question is how much of next year’s drop is real and what to do about the months in between.
The $4.49 forecast for 2027 is a year away, and a $6.28 diesel price is the one on today’s bills. The Benefits Checklist covers 11 benefit programs and the 2026 income limits for help that can lighten household costs in the meantime.
See which of the 11 benefit programs fit a tight budget in The Benefits Checklist →
Who buys diesel and who pays for it
Most households never fill a tank with diesel. The ones that do are farmers, owners of diesel pickups and RVs, and small haulers, and for them each ten cents a gallon is real money: 100 gallons costs $10 more, and 1,000 gallons costs $100 more.
The rest of the country feels diesel through delivery. A truck that brings groceries, medicine or packages to a town runs on it, and its costs are part of what a shipper charges. No agency has said how fast that passes through to store shelves, and none has announced a price change on any product because of diesel.
In two states the tax has already been cut. Ohio’s diesel tax fell from 47 cents to one-hundredth of a cent on Oct. 4, and Georgia suspended its 37.3-cent diesel tax on Sept. 29. Those breaks lower the bill for diesel buyers in those states only.
Reading a forecast the right way
A forecast is useful for direction, not for planning to the penny. The one for 2027 comes with the rest of 2026 and a winter to get through first, and EIA’s own text sets the price path against a Middle East assumption that it can revise next month.
The department’s gasoline figures follow the same pattern. Regular gasoline averaged $4.35 a gallon in September, and the outlook has it at $3.56 in 2027, “just under $3.60” in the text. Both fuels are expected to ease next year in the same forecast.
Budgeting for diesel until next year
The practical step is to separate what is certain from what is not. The current price is certain, the 2026 average of $5.19 mixes earlier and later months, and the 2027 figure of $4.49 is a forecast. A trucker who burns 1,000 gallons a month would pay about $1,790 less at $4.49 than at AAA’s $6.2785, if the forecast proves right. Anyone who pays for diesel directly can keep a log of gallons and prices and compare it against EIA’s weekly survey, which publishes next on Oct. 14.
Anyone who shops or receives deliveries should watch the prices that matter to the household, not guess at pass-through. The free route is EIA’s own outlook page, which posts the full tables and the assumptions behind them each month. Reading the assumptions section tells a reader what would have to happen for the forecast to change.
Diesel may ease to $4.49, but not soon
Between today’s $6.28 and next year’s $4.49 lie a winter and a spring of bills. The Benefits Checklist is an 84-page guide to 11 benefit programs, with the 2026 income limits and a printable tracker, for help that must be applied for.
Get The Benefits Checklist for the months in between →
This article was produced with AI assistance and edited for accuracy against the sources linked above.
