The Transportation Department finalized a new federal fuel-economy rule on September 28 that sets a fleet-average target of 34.9 miles per gallon by model year 2031. The department says the change will reduce the average cost of a new vehicle by $1,300, an estimate that comes from the department itself. President Donald Trump’s administration calls the rule “Freedom Means Affordable Cars.”
A 34.9 mpg fleet average for model year 2031
The Department of Transportation’s announcement of the final rule puts the target at “fleet average fuel economy of 34.9 miles per gallon by model year 2031, up from 30.1 mile per gallon for model year 2024.” A fleet average is a manufacturer-wide measure, not a rating on each car. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy page says NHTSA sets these standards for passenger cars and light trucks, and it refers to the industry fleetwide requirement of roughly 34.9 mpg in model year 2031.
The rule replaces a tougher standard. Roll Call reported that the Biden-era rule would have required automakers to reach 50.4 miles per gallon by the 2031 model year. The gap between 50.4 and 34.9 is 15.5 miles per gallon.
Measured from the department’s model year 2024 figure of 30.1 mpg, the final target adds 4.8 miles per gallon over seven model years. The Biden-era path of 50.4 mpg would have added 20.3. Because the target is a fleet average, a manufacturer can still sell individual models above or below it, as long as its combined vehicles meet the number.
The Transportation Department’s $1,300 estimate
The price claim is the department’s own. The announcement says the rule will “reduce the average cost of a new vehicle by $1,300 for American families” and will save the American people $138 billion over the next five years. The release presents both as estimates. Roll Call attributed the same figures to the department rather than adopting them.
The number is an average across all new vehicles, so it does not mean any single sticker price drops by $1,300. It is also a projection of what standards will do to production costs. The pages read for this article do not show the calculation behind it or say how much of a change automakers would pass on to buyers.
An earlier account differed. Reuters, in a September 26 report carried by the Spokesman-Review before the rule was issued, described a 34.5 mpg target for 2031 and per-vehicle savings of $930. The final numbers, 34.9 mpg and $1,300, are higher on both counts.
Fuel use, the other side of the ledger
A lower mileage target changes what drivers spend on gasoline as well as what they pay at the dealership. The same Reuters report said the new standards would increase fuel consumption by around 100 billion gallons through 2050, a figure it described as the department’s own estimate.
The Environmental Defense Fund put a household number on the fuel side. Andy Su, the group’s senior transportation attorney, told Roll Call the rule would cause Americans to spend “an average of $1,400 more on gas,” and said that “our national fuel economy standards have steadily made our vehicles more efficient and less expensive to drive.” Roll Call’s account does not say over what period the group measured that figure, so it cannot be set directly against the department’s $1,300, which covers the purchase price.
When new cars would feel the change
The rule covers model years 2022 through 2031, but Roll Call noted that “in practice, the rule will largely affect new cars beginning with the 2028 model year,” because earlier model years are already built. Two other dates sit inside the announcement. The department says CAFE credit trading, which lets automakers buy compliance credits from one another, ends starting with model year 2028, and vehicle reclassification takes effect in model year 2030. NHTSA’s page also lists the end of inter-manufacturer credit trading from model year 2028.
For a household shopping for a car this fall, that timing means the estimated price effect applies to cars several model years away, not the ones on lots now.
What the department and industry say about the rule
Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy called the rule an end to an “illegal mandate that forced automakers to produce more expensive electric vehicles,” adding, “we are making the American dream affordable again.” NHTSA Administrator Jonathan Morrison said, “By reducing vehicle prices, more American families will be able to afford newer vehicles.” The department also claims the rule will prevent more than 300,000 serious injuries and save 1,900 lives by encouraging new car sales, another estimate that the release states without a public calculation in the pages read here.
John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, said NHTSA “made the right call,” according to Roll Call, arguing that the earlier standards effectively required a switchover to electric vehicles. The dollar claims in the headline rest on the department’s announcement, which remains the primary record of what the final rule sets.
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This article was prepared with AI assistance and checked against the cited Transportation Department, NHTSA and news sources.
